AI Prompt Template for Strategic Decision-Making and Scenario Planning

Objective: Equip leaders and strategy teams with a reusable AI prompt that systematically evaluates high-stakes options such as market entry, mergers and acquisitions, or product launches by forcing explicit assumptions, balanced pros and cons, second-order effects, and probability-weighted outcomes.

The base prompt was formed through these deliberate design choices:

Begin with a clear role assignment so the model acts as an experienced strategy consultant rather than a generic assistant.
Require the user to state the decision context and the specific options under review so the analysis stays grounded.
Force an exhaustive list of underlying assumptions before any evaluation begins, reducing hidden bias.
Structure the comparison around four fixed lenses: assumptions, advantages, disadvantages, and second-order effects.
Mandate probability estimates and expected-value style reasoning so the output moves beyond qualitative lists into decision-ready prioritization.
Close with a concise recommendation and residual risks so the user receives both analysis and a clear next step.

Note

Keep the decision statement and the list of options concise. Overly long context dilutes the model’s focus on structured comparison.

Prompt Template

{{snippet:strategy_role}}

Decision context: {{decision_context}}

Options under evaluation:
{{options_list}}

Follow this exact structure in your response:

1. Assumptions
List every material assumption that must hold for each option to succeed. Flag any assumption that is currently unverified.

2. Pros and Cons
For each option, provide a balanced table of advantages and disadvantages grounded in the stated assumptions.

3. Second-Order Effects
Identify the most likely indirect consequences (positive and negative) that could arise 12–36 months after implementation.

4. Probability-Weighted Outcomes
Assign a probability (0–100 %) to the primary success scenario of each option and calculate a simple expected impact score using the scale provided by the user: {{impact_scale}}.

5. Recommendation
State the preferred option, the key conditions that would reverse the recommendation, and the top three residual risks that require monitoring.

{{snippet:output_constraints}}

Element	Type	Example Value
{{snippet:strategy_role}}	snippet	You are a senior strategy consultant with 20 years of experience in corporate development and market-entry analysis.
{{decision_context}}	variable	Evaluating whether to enter the Southeast Asian e-commerce logistics market in 2027
{{options_list}}	variable	Option A: Organic build-out; Option B: Acquisition of a regional player; Option C: Joint venture with a local partner
{{impact_scale}}	variable	High / Medium / Low financial and strategic impact
{{snippet:output_constraints}}	snippet	Keep the entire response under 800 words. Use tables for pros/cons and probability sections. Do not add introductory or closing commentary outside the five numbered sections.

Prompt Example

You are a senior strategy consultant with 20 years of experience in corporate development and market-entry analysis.

Decision context: Evaluating whether to enter the Southeast Asian e-commerce logistics market in 2027

Options under evaluation:
Option A: Organic build-out; Option B: Acquisition of a regional player; Option C: Joint venture with a local partner

Follow this exact structure in your response:

1. Assumptions
List every material assumption that must hold for each option to succeed. Flag any assumption that is currently unverified.

2. Pros and Cons
For each option, provide a balanced table of advantages and disadvantages grounded in the stated assumptions.

3. Second-Order Effects
Identify the most likely indirect consequences (positive and negative) that could arise 12–36 months after implementation.

4. Probability-Weighted Outcomes
Assign a probability (0–100 %) to the primary success scenario of each option and calculate a simple expected impact score using the scale provided by the user: High / Medium / Low financial and strategic impact.

5. Recommendation
State the preferred option, the key conditions that would reverse the recommendation, and the top three residual risks that require monitoring.

Keep the entire response under 800 words. Use tables for pros/cons and probability sections. Do not add introductory or closing commentary outside the five numbered sections.

Tip

After the first run, feed the model’s assumption list back into a second prompt that asks it to stress-test each assumption with contrary evidence. This quickly surfaces fragile premises.

Extended example values:

{{snippet:strategy_role}}
- You are a senior strategy consultant with 20 years of experience in corporate development and market-entry analysis.
- You are a principal at a top-tier management consulting firm specializing in M&A and growth strategy for technology-enabled services.
{{decision_context}}
- Evaluating whether to enter the Southeast Asian e-commerce logistics market in 2027
- Assessing the acquisition of a mid-sized European SaaS company to accelerate product expansion into regulated industries
{{options_list}}
- Option A: Organic build-out; Option B: Acquisition of a regional player; Option C: Joint venture with a local partner
- Option 1: Launch a freemium tier; Option 2: Partner with an established platform; Option 3: Acquire a complementary start-up
{{impact_scale}}
- High / Medium / Low financial and strategic impact
- NPV contribution over five years plus qualitative strategic fit score from 1 to 5
{{snippet:output_constraints}}
- Keep the entire response under 800 words. Use tables for pros/cons and probability sections. Do not add introductory or closing commentary outside the five numbered sections.
- Limit the response to 600 words. Present all comparative data in markdown tables. End strictly after the Recommendation section.